Mithras Yekanoglu

by Mithras Yekanoglu

Türkiye’s growing interest in joining BRICS has emerged as a significant geopolitical development. While the United States does not want to see Türkiye fall under China’s influence, the European Union (EU) is concerned about Türkiye aligning too closely with Russia. Meanwhile, China is keen on integrating Türkiye into its global projects to pull it away from Western influence. This complex dynamic has turned Türkiye’s foreign policy into a strategic balancing act making its potential BRICS membership a subject of both opportunities and risks.

1. What is BRICS, and What Does It Mean for Türkiye?

BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) represents an economic and political bloc aimed at shifting global financial and political influence away from Western dominated institutions. With China and Russia as key players, BRICS is developing alternatives to Western financial systems. Türkiye’s possible accession to BRICS raises critical questions about how it will manage its economic and political ties with the West.

Several factors are driving Türkiye’s interest in BRICS:

• Growing distrust of Western policies toward Türkiye: Türkiye has become increasingly skeptical of its Western allies due to stalled EU membership negotiations and strategic disagreements with the U.S.

• Search for a new global economic balance: By joining BRICS, Türkiye could diversify its economic partnerships and reduce its dependence on Western financial institutions.

• Energy, infrastructure and defense cooperation: Strengthening ties with Russia and China in these areas makes BRICS membership even more attractive.

Türkiye’s participation in BRICS could lead to significant shifts in global economic and political alliances but it also carries the risk of provoking strong reactions from the West.

2. U.S. Concerns: Preventing Türkiye from Falling Under Chinese Influence

For the United States, Türkiye’s engagement with BRICS represents a challenge to Washington’s strategic interests in the region. As a NATO member, Türkiye plays a crucial role in the Western alliance, but recent tensions between Ankara and Washington have strained relations.

Key U.S. concerns include:

• China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) influence on Türkiye: Türkiye is a key part of China’s BRI, which seeks to expand Beijing’s economic footprint across Eurasia. Stronger economic ties between Türkiye and China could weaken U.S. influence.

• Defense and military cooperation: Türkiye’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system led to U.S. sanctions. If Türkiye deepens military cooperation with China and Russia, it could further alienate itself from NATO.

• Türkiye’s push for economic independence: The U.S. does not want Türkiye to develop alternative economic frameworks that reduce its reliance on Western-dominated financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

If Türkiye moves closer to BRICS, Washington may respond with diplomatic and economic pressure. However, how Türkiye navigates this pressure will be critical to its broader geopolitical strategy.

3. The EU’s Strategy: Preventing Türkiye from Drifting Toward Russia

The European Union does not want Türkiye to become too closely aligned with Russia. Türkiye’s potential BRICS membership could strengthen its ties with Moscow, which the EU views as a strategic risk.

The EU’s main concerns include:

• Energy dependency: Türkiye relies heavily on Russian natural gas. A closer relationship with Russia through BRICS could give Moscow more leverage over Türkiye and weaken the EU’s influence.

• Customs Union and trade relations: If Türkiye deepens its economic ties with BRICS, it could disrupt its existing trade agreements with the EU, particularly the Customs Union.

• Geopolitical balance: The EU wants to keep Türkiye within the Western alliance and may use economic and diplomatic incentives to prevent Türkiye from shifting toward the BRICS bloc.

If Türkiye’s BRICS accession becomes more concrete, the EU may take steps to counterbalance this move possibly by offering economic or political incentives to keep Türkiye aligned with Europe.

4. China’s Interest in Türkiye: Expanding Its Global Influence

China strongly supports Türkiye’s potential BRICS membership as it aligns with Beijing’s broader geopolitical and economic ambitions. Türkiye’s strategic location and economic potential make it a valuable partner for China.

China’s key objectives in Türkiye include:

• Economic integration: China seeks to integrate Türkiye more deeply into the Belt and Road Initiative reducing Western influence in the region.

• Infrastructure and technology investments: China is increasing its investments in Turkish infrastructure and technology including 5G networks and high speed rail projects.

• Military and security cooperation: Closer defense cooperation between China and Türkiye could challenge NATO’s influence in the region.

China’s growing presence in Türkiye may alarm both the U.S. and the EU. However, Türkiye could use China’s interest as leverage to negotiate better deals with Western partners.

5. Türkiye’s Role in BRICS and Future Scenarios

If Türkiye accelerates its accession to BRICS, it could reshape its economic and geopolitical position. However, this decision would also have consequences for its relations with the West.

Possible scenarios include:

1. Türkiye uses BRICS as a bargaining tool with the West: By engaging with BRICS, Türkiye could strengthen its negotiating position with the U.S. and the EU pushing for better trade deals and security arrangements.

2. Türkiye gains more economic independence through BRICS: By joining alternative financial systems and trade networks, Türkiye could reduce its reliance on Western dominated institutions.

3. Western backlash against Türkiye’s BRICS membership: The U.S. and the EU may impose new economic sanctions or diplomatic pressures on Türkiye in response to its closer ties with BRICS.

Ultimately, Türkiye must carefully navigate its BRICS accession strategy ensuring that it benefits from both Eastern and Western economic opportunities while avoiding excessive dependence on any single power. In a rapidly shifting global order, Türkiye’s ability to balance its alliances will determine the success of its foreign policy in the coming years.