Mithras Yekanoglu

by Mithras Yekanoglu

As the Russia and Ukraine war enters its third year a major contradiction is emerging on the international stage regarding the end of the conflict. Recent statements from the Kremlin suggest that Vladimir Putin is willing to negotiate a peace agreement with Ukraine. At the same time, the U.S. administration under Donald Trump is feeling the financial and political burden of the prolonged war and may be inclined toward peace. However, the most striking factor in this equation is that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the European Union remain insistent on continuing the war.

So, who really wants to end the war, who wants to prolong it, and what are the real motivations behind these positions?

Is Putin Ready for Peace?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently made multiple statements indicating that he is open to negotiations. The increasing military support from the West and the weakening of the Ukrainian army have strengthened Russia’s position. However, the only reason behind Putin’s willingness for peace is not just military advantage. The Russian economy has suffered significantly due to the war and Western sanctions.

Moscow wants to bring this process to a controlled end through a peace agreement for several reasons:

1. Preventing Further Military Losses – Russia has suffered heavy casualties in the war and wants to avoid further losses.

2. Protecting Economic Stability – The prolonged war combined with Western sanctions is straining Russia’s revenue from energy and natural resources.

3. Securing Its Geopolitical Position – Russia aims to safeguard its territorial gains, such as Crimea and eastern Ukraine through a negotiated settlement.

Considering these factors, it is clear that Putin wants to end the war as soon as possible while ensuring the regional status quo remains in his favor.

Does the U.S. Want Peace?

Initially, the United States strongly supported Ukraine but in recent months the financial cost of the war has started to cause discomfort in Washington. Especially as the country heads into an election cycle, the Trump administration is facing increasing war fatigue among the American public. Polls in the U.S. indicate that more and more Americans are questioning the billions of dollars in military and economic aid sent to Ukraine.

For Trump’s administration, the prolonged war is both a financial and political burden. While Ukraine serves as a platform for demonstrating American power, an endless war is neither militarily nor economically sustainable. The best case scenario for U.S. strategists is to push Ukraine toward a peace deal that allows them to claim some form of victory.

For this reason, there are claims that Washington is engaging in indirect negotiations with Moscow behind the scenes. The U.S. appears to be leaning toward ending the war at some point but there is a major obstacle to this: Zelensky and the European Union.

Why Does Zelensky Want to Continue the War?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has enjoyed full support from the West since the beginning of the war. However, over time the political power he gained early on has led him to adopt a more rigid stance. Zelensky has repeatedly stated that he will not negotiate with Russia unless all occupied territories are reclaimed.

However, in reality, Ukraine cannot sustain this war indefinitely. The Ukrainian military has suffered heavy losses and has become entirely dependent on Western aid. The country’s economy is also in deep crisis. Despite this, Zelensky’s reluctance toward peace can be explained by several factors:

1. Protecting His Political Future – Zelensky has positioned himself as a wartime leader and agreeing to peace could damage his credibility among his people.

2. Dependence on Western Support – As long as the war continues, Ukraine receives billions in aid from the U.S. and Europe.

3. Belief in Victory – Continuous military support from the West has led Zelensky to believe that prolonging the war will eventually make it more costly for Russia.

However, given the realities on the ground, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to sustain this strategy.

The European Union’s Role in Prolonging the War

From the start, the European Union has provided unwavering support for Ukraine. However, what is striking is whether the EU truly wants the war to end. Countries like Poland, the Baltic states, and Germany continue to support Ukraine’s fight and are among those pushing for the war’s continuation.

Europe’s stance on the war is driven by several factors:

1. Weakening Russia – The EU sees the prolonged war as an opportunity to significantly weaken Russia’s military and economic power.

2. Securing U.S. Support – By keeping the war ongoing European countries ensure continued U.S. military and security presence in Europe.

3. Energy and Economic Interests – European nations see the war as a chance to reduce dependency on Russian energy and establish long term partnerships with alternative suppliers.

However, this stance also poses a major threat to Europe’s own economic stability. As the war drags on, energy prices remain high, economic stagnation deepens and waves of refugees continue to increase pressure on the continent.

Conclusion: The Roadblocks to Peace

It appears that while Russia and the U.S. are increasingly inclined toward ending the war, Ukraine and the European Union remain the main obstacles to peace. Zelensky’s insistence on fighting and Europe’s policy of completely weakening Russia are making peace efforts more difficult.

However, the war cannot last forever. With reports of secret U.S.-Russia negotiations, Ukraine may eventually be pressured into an agreement. In the coming months, the key factor determining the war’s trajectory will be whether Washington increases pressure on Zelensky.

For now, Ukraine’s reluctance to negotiate peace continues to impose massive costs on both its own people and the world. But sooner or later, they will have to come to the table.

If Ukraine and Russia Make Peace: Possible Scenarios After the War

The end of the three year long war between Russia and Ukraine and the establishment of peace will mark the beginning of a new era with profound regional and global effects. However, the end of the war does not mean an immediate return to normalcy. On the contrary, the post war period will bring long term consequences for Ukraine’s reconstruction, Russia’s international standing the West’s policies and the global economy.

So, what will happen after a possible peace agreement? What kind of process will Ukraine and Russia go through? How will the European Union, the U.S. and NATO react? Here are the possible scenarios for the post war period.

1. Terms of Peace: Who Will Be the Winner?

For the war to end, Russia and Ukraine must reach an agreement on critical issues. However, such an agreement will require both sides to make significant concessions. A potential peace deal could include the following:

• Territorial Status: Russia will likely seek to retain control over Crimea and regions like Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine. While this may be unacceptable for Ukraine, Western pressure might push Kyiv to concede some territories.

• Military Neutrality: Russia will demand guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO. Establishing Ukraine as a neutral state with limited Western ties will be one of Russia’s key conditions.

• Lifting of Sanctions: Russia will push for the easing of Western economic sanctions but the U.S. and Europe may demand specific concessions in return.

• Ukraine’s Reconstruction: Given the extensive damage to Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure, significant investments will be needed for rebuilding. The European Union and the U.S. may provide substantial financial aid to help Ukraine recover.

The structure of this peace agreement will determine the true victor of the war. If Ukraine is forced to accept territorial losses, it will signify a partial victory for Russia. However, if Russia remains under severe economic sanctions and faces ongoing military constraints, Ukraine might be seen as having emerged stronger despite the destruction.

2. Ukraine’s Future: Reconstruction and NATO Relations

After the war, Ukraine’s top priority will be rebuilding destroyed cities and reviving its economy. However, this process will require vast financial resources.

Economic Recovery and EU Integration

The war has severely damaged Ukraine’s economy making the country highly dependent on Western support. The European Union may provide large scale financial assistance for Ukraine’s reconstruction. This process could accelerate Ukraine’s full EU membership, though it remains uncertain how Russia will respond to this development.

NATO Membership and Security Policies

Even after a peace agreement, Ukraine’s potential NATO membership will remain a major issue. While Russia will demand strong guarantees against NATO expansion, Ukraine will seek security assurances from the West.

Several possible scenarios could unfold:

• Ukraine remains neutral but receives security assurances from the West without joining NATO.

• Ukraine signs a new defense agreement with NATO ensuring protection without full membership.

• NATO accepts Ukraine as a full member potentially triggering new geopolitical tensions.

3. Russia’s Situation: Economic and Political Consequences

For Russia, the post war period will pose serious military and economic challenges.

Putin’s Future and Domestic Politics

The end of the war will directly impact Vladimir Putin’s political future. If Russia secures territorial gains, Putin may strengthen his grip on power. However, if economic hardships and war fatigue persist, domestic unrest could grow threatening his leadership.

Economic Sanctions and Relations with the West

Russia may continue to face economic difficulties due to prolonged Western sanctions. Depending on the peace agreement, some sanctions may be eased, but the U.S. and Europe may maintain pressure to keep Russia economically weak.

• If sanctions are lifted, the Russian economy could begin recovering.

• If sanctions remain Russia may pivot further toward China and Asian markets to reduce reliance on the West.

4. Strategic Position of Europe and the U.S.

For the West, the Ukraine war has been a crucial test of its ability to contain Russian expansion. However, the post war period may shift U.S. and European strategies.

• European Union: The EU will continue to support Ukraine financially but will also focus on achieving greater energy independence from Russia.

• United States: The U.S. may reduce military aid to Ukraine while avoiding direct confrontation with Russia and prioritizing diplomatic management of future relations.

• NATO: While NATO may not immediately grant Ukraine full membership, it could increase its military presence in Eastern Europe to prevent future Russian aggression.

5. Global Power Shifts and New Alliances

The end of the war will not only reshape Ukraine and Russia but also impact global geopolitics.

• China’s Role: As Russia’s key economic partner, China may step in to strengthen Moscow’s economy and reduce its dependence on the West.

• Türkiye’s Position: Türkiye, having played a mediator role in previous negotiations could emerge as a more influential regional power.

• New Economic and Military Alliances: The post war period may lead to the emergence of new global alliances, depending on how the West and Russia redefine their relationships.

Conclusion: Peace Will Not Be Easy

The end of the war and the signing of a peace agreement will mark a major turning point for both Russia and Ukraine. However, the preservation of peace, economic recovery and the future of security alliances will be critical issues in the post-war period.

A peace agreement will not just determine the future of Russia and Ukraine but will also shape global power dynamics. The strategic decisions made in the aftermath of the war will define the long term stability of the region.