Mithras Yekanoglu

by Mithras Yekanoglu

We are witnessing one of the greatest economic and geopolitical transformations in history. China, once a struggling agrarian society in the mid-20th century has emerged as a dominant force in the 21st century. It is no longer just an economic powerhouse but also a rising superpower in military, political and technological arenas.

But what is behind this rapid rise? Is China truly aiming for global dominance, or is this growth a temporary phenomenon?

This article will dive deep into China’s economic power, geopolitical strategies, strengths and weaknesses. One thing is certain: China’s rise is a global game changer affecting not just Asia but the entire world.

1. CHINA’S ECONOMIC RISE: A STRATEGIC MIRACLE

China’s economic boom is not a coincidence but the result of a carefully planned strategy. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms shifted China away from Maoist socialism toward a state controlled capitalist model.

With cheap labor and massive industrial capacity, China became the “World’s Factory” producing goods for the U.S., Europe and beyond. However, China did not stop at manufacturing, it invested in technology, infrastructure and domestic consumption diversifying its economy.

China’s Economic Power in Numbers

• GDP: As of 2023, China’s GDP is around $18 trillion, making it the world’s second largest economy after the U.S.

• Global Trade: China is the largest exporter in the world and a top trade partner for both the U.S. and Europe.

• Technology Dominance: Companies like Huawei, Alibaba and Tencent are driving China’s digital economy.

• Digital Yuan: China is pioneering central bank digital currencies challenging the global financial system.

2. CHINA’S GEOPOLITICAL MOVES: CHALLENGING THE GLOBAL ORDER

China’s economic power has fueled its ambition to reshape the global geopolitical landscape. As it strengthens its military and diplomatic reach, China is directly challenging Western dominance.

Belt and Road Initiative: A New Silk Road or a Debt Trap?

Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is China’s most ambitious global project. It aims to connect Asia, Europe and Africa through massive infrastructure investments. However, critics argue that BRI is a “debt trap diplomacy” making countries financially dependent on China.

For example, Sri Lanka was unable to repay its Chinese loans and had to lease its Hambantota Port to China for 99 years. Similar cases are emerging across Africa and Asia, sparking concerns over China’s true intentions.

Tensions Over Taiwan and the South China Sea

China’s military expansion in the South China Sea and threats against Taiwan could spark a global conflict. While the U.S. supports Taiwan, China views the island as an inseparable part of its territory.

If a war breaks out over Taiwan, global trade and the semiconductor industry would face devastating consequences.

3. CHINA’S WEAKNESSES: A PAPER TIGER?

Despite its strengths, China faces serious challenges that could slow its rise.

Demographic Crisis: China Is Getting Old

China’s biggest asset, its massive population is turning into a liability. Falling birth rates and an aging workforce could shrink the economy by 2050. China’s workforce may decline by 200 millions threatening its industrial dominance.

Real Estate Crisis: A Ticking Time Bomb

China’s economic growth has been heavily reliant on real estate. The collapse of Evergrande, one of China’s largest property developers, exposed the fragility of this sector. Since real estate makes up 30% of China’s economy, a full-blown crisis could trigger a financial meltdown.

4. CHINA’S FUTURE: THE NEXT GLOBAL SUPERPOWER?

China is in a direct economic and political battle with the West. The U.S. and Europe are imposing sanctions and trade restrictions to slow China’s technological rise. In response, China is strengthening alliances with emerging markets like the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa) to counterbalance Western influence.

If China can overcome its internal crises and manage its global ambitions, it could surpass the U.S. as the dominant power of the 21st century. However, if economic mismanagement or geopolitical missteps occur, China’s rise could slow or even reverse.

Final Thought: The World Cannot Ignore China

China’s trajectory is as significant as the rise of the Roman Empire. The world is at a crossroads: either China will redefine global leadership or struggle under its own weight.

One thing is clear China is here to stay and the global order will never be the same.

IF CHINA DID NOT EXIST, HOW WOULD THE WORLD ECONOMY LOOK? WHO WOULD BE THE NEXT SUPERPOWER AFTER THE U.S.?

China has been one of the most influential players in the global economy over the past 40 years. Since the 1980s, China’s economic rise has accelerated globalization, reduced production costs and expanded world trade. If China had never grown this significantly or had remained a minor player in the global economy the world would be a very different place today.

1. Global Supply Chain and Manufacturing: More Expensive and Slower

China is known as the “World’s Factory,” playing a central role in global production. Without China:

• Companies in the U.S. and Europe would have to manufacture at higher costs.

• Electronics, smartphones and textiles would be much more expensive.

• The global supply chain would be more fragile and inefficient.

For example, Apple relies on China’s manufacturing power to produce iPhones cost effectively. Without China, production would shift to India, Vietnam or Mexico but none could match China’s scale and efficiency.

2. Global Trade: The U.S. Would Maintain Its Hegemony

Today, China is the biggest trade competitor to the U.S. Without China:

• The U.S. would remain the undisputed global economic leader.

• The European Union (EU) and Japan would become more dominant but neither alone could challenge the U.S.

• Instead of trade wars, the U.S. and Europe would cooperate more closely on economic policies.

China’s presence has created a multi polar trade system. Without it, the world economy would be more U.S. centric.

3. Commodity and Oil Prices Would Be Lower

China is the largest consumer of global commodities, including iron, copper, aluminum, oil and gas. Without China’s demand:

• Oil prices would be lower as China is one of the largest energy consumers.

• Global mining companies would produce less reducing their economic influence.

• Resource rich countries like Russia, Brazil and Australia would suffer economically.

4. Technology and AI Development Would Be Slower

China is the only country truly competing with the U.S. in technology. In AI, 5G, quantum computing, and semiconductor manufacturing, China plays a leading role. Without China:

• Technological innovation would slow down as competition fuels faster development.

• U.S. tech giants would have less competition, increasing monopolization.

• The global AI and semiconductor industry would be less advanced.

For instance, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Huawei to limit China’s progress in 5G and chip technology. Without China such conflicts wouldn’t exist but innovation would be less dynamic.

WHO WOULD BE THE NEXT SUPERPOWER AFTER THE U.S.?

If China were absent, the next most powerful country would depend on economic, military, technological and diplomatic factors.

1. The European Union (Germany-France Leadership)

The EU has the world’s second-largest economy after the U.S. Without China:

• The European economy would be stronger as it would face less competition.

• Germany and France would take on more global leadership.

• The Euro might challenge the U.S. dollar more aggressively.

However, the EU’s biggest weakness is its lack of military and political unity. While its individual nations are strong, the EU as a whole does not function as a unified superpower.

2. India: High Potential but Slow Growth

India, with 1.4 billion people, is China’s closest competitor. Without China:

• India would become the U.S.’s primary manufacturing hub.

• It could grow its technology and innovation sector faster.

• Its military and geopolitical influence would increase.

However, India struggles with poor infrastructure, bureaucracy and slow reforms, making it difficult to reach China’s growth levels.

3. Russia: Militarily Strong but Economically Weak

Russia is a major military power but its economy is too dependent on oil and gas. Without China:

• Russia would be the U.S.’s primary global rival.

• It would struggle economically due to the lack of major trade partners.

CONCLUSION: THE WORLD WOULD BE MORE U.S. DOMINATED

Without China:

• The U.S. would dominate global politics and trade.

• Production costs would rise, making everyday products more expensive.

• Technology competition would slow down.

• The EU and India might gain more influence but not as much as China.

Ultimately, China’s presence has reshaped the global economy. If China collapses or is cut off from global trade, the entire world will face economic consequences.

WHAT IF CHINA, CANADA AND RUSSIA FORMED AN ALLIANCE?

If China, Canada and Russia formed a strategic alliance or union, it would completely disrupt global power dynamics. These three countries possess economic, military and geopolitical advantages that could significantly challenge the West.

1. GEOPOLITICAL AND MILITARY IMPACTS: A NEW SUPERPOWER BLOC

If these three nations joined forces, they would create a new global superpower with:

• Russia’s massive nuclear arsenal.

• China’s massive army and technological investments.

• Canada’s key geographic position and economic resources.

✓ NATO and the U.S. Would Face a Major Threat

• NATO’s dominance would be seriously challenged.

• A new Cold War could emerge, forcing Europe to increase its defense spending.

• The Arctic region would become a battleground as this alliance would dominate the North.

✓ A Shift in Military Strategy

• China and Russia already conduct joint military exercises.

• If Canada joins, the U.S. faces a direct threat on its northern border.

Outcome: The world enters a new era of geopolitical confrontation.

2. ECONOMIC IMPACT: THE END OF THE DOLLAR’S DOMINANCE?

✓ Resource and Energy Domination

• Russia is a leading energy exporter.

• Canada has massive oil, gas and water reserves.

• China is the world’s largest manufacturing economy.

If these nations form a single economic bloc, they could control global energy markets, forcing Europe and the U.S. to seek alternative sources.

✓ Trade Disruptions

• The U.S. and Europe would impose massive tariffs on these countries.

• A new global trade war would erupt.

• The U.S. dollar’s dominance could weaken as China and Russia push for alternative payment systems.

Outcome: Western economies could enter a severe recession.

3. POLITICAL IMPACT: CANADA’S COMPLEX POSITION

Canada is a core Western ally. If it joins China and Russia:

• The U.S. would completely cut ties with Canada.

• NATO would face a major internal crisis.

• Canada’s political landscape would become highly unstable as many Canadians would oppose such an alliance.

This makes Canada’s involvement highly unlikely. However, if it happened, it would be a historic shock to the West.

4. HOW WOULD THE U.S. AND THE WEST RESPOND?

If China, Canada and Russia unite, the West would react in three main ways:

1. Military Expansion

• Increased defense spending in the U.S. and Europe.

• Stronger military presence in the Pacific.

2. Economic Sanctions

• The U.S. and EU would impose severe trade and technology sanctions.

• Tech bans would try to slow China’s progress.

3. New Alliances

• The U.S. would strengthen ties with India, Australia and Japan.

• A stronger anti China coalition would form.

Outcome: A new Cold War begins with the world divided into two rival blocs.

CONCLUSION: A GLOBAL POWER SHIFT

If China, Canada and Russia united:

• U.S. global dominance would be severely weakened.

• Energy and trade markets would be restructured.

• A new global Cold War would emerge.

However, Canada’s deep Western ties make this alliance nearly impossible. Even if China and Russia grow closer, the global order is already shifting toward a multi polar world.